"Election" Time in Zimbabwe
By Suraj Prasannakumar
MIA 2009
If anyone reads this post in the next couple of days, I would like to know what you think the odds are that Tsvangirai will be Zimbabwe’s next leader. I give it a 50-50 chance, with higher odds of bloodshed given either outcome.
Keep in mind that we are not betting on who will be declared the winner. Mugabe has said he wants the job until he is at least 100 (16 years from now), and there is no doubt he will stuff as many ballots as he needs to get there. Today I saw a news article stating that the late Ian Douglas Smith, Rhodesia’s white supremacist former Prime Minister, had risen from his grave to cast a ballot for Mugabe.
In this regard, Tsvangirai’s overwhelming lead in early polling is important only symbolically. But the Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has reportedly been gaining inroads in the rural regions that traditionally support Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). And the broad-based urban support for the MDC virtually guarantees a critical mass for protests and uprisings these coming weeks. Further, ZANU-PF has been split apart by the former finance minister Makoni, weakening its political base. This, and general discontent at the current country’s staggering levels of poverty, starvation, and unemployment could provide enough popular momentum to finally oust Mugabe from his palace.















